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Sábado, 17 de Novembro de 2012

Uma bela confusão!!! Antes que esta crise fique para trás ...

"European economy guide

Polarised prospects

Nov 15th 2012, 15:05 by Economist.com

 
 
THE euro crisis has eased since Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), pledged in July 2012 to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. Sovereign debt yields in the troubled economies on the southern and western periphery of the 17-country euro zone have fallen sharply since the ECB made a commitment (subject to strict conditions) to buy without limit short-term government bonds of countries that apply for and get help from the euro area’s main rescue fund.

There has also been more rebalancing in the periphery than is generally appreciated. Current-account deficits which had ballooned in the first decade of the euro have narrowed in countries like Portugal and Spain. Ireland’s has returned to surplus. Primary budget balances (ie, before interest) – a crucial measure in determining the sustainability of public finances – have improved, with deficits shrinking and Italy’s returning to surplus.

 

Despite these improvements, government debt levels are now worryingly high in the periphery, with debt burdens (ie, as a share of GDP) above 100% in Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. Greece’s, which now exceeds 175%, is easily the highest and will almost certainly require a further restructuring (to follow the writedown of over half of privately held debt in March 2012), this time of official loans, in order to reduce it to a sustainable level.

 

And when it comes to growth and unemployment the divide between the creditor countries in the north and the debtor nations in the south continues to widen. The euro area has fallen back into recession, but that economic reverse is much deeper on the periphery than in the core. Germany will manage to grow by 0.8% a year in 2012 and 2013. Spanish GDP will fall by 1.4% in each year. Greece will endure a sixth year of recession, with GDP collapsing by over 4% in 2013. German unemployment will be less than 6% of the workforce in 2013; Spain’s will be nearly 27%.

The performance of countries outside the euro zone has been uneven. Sweden has done much better than Britain, which experienced a second recession between late 2011 and mid-2012. The euro crisis has contributed to Britain’s difficulties, but they were essentially home-grown: government and consumers loaded up on debt before the banking crisis of 2007-09. Countries in eastern Europe like Poland have fared particularly well.

Our interactive graphic (updated November 15th 2012)displays the latest economic and fiscal differences across the entire European Union."


The economist

 

A dívida pública a crescer em muitos casos com percentagens difíceis de sustentar em relação ao rendimento anual, dificuldades de financiamento e juros crescentes, a maioria dos países com um saldo primário negativo e com o rendimento das famílias a continuar a decrescer, diminuindo o consumo interno e regra geral as exportações - porque se todos decrescem, todo o consumo vai decrescer - um saldo da balança de pagamentos geralmente negativo, saldos primários (ainda sem os juros da dívida pública) geralmente negativos, previsões de crescimento do PIB negativas ou timidamente positivas e que, geralmente, estarão sobrevalorizadas ... Nenhum país foge a muitas destas premissas como cenário presente e de futuro.

 

Mas alguns têm alguns bons trunfos: os que têm percentagens de endividamento em relação ao PIB relativamente baixas e que podem manter a capacidade de endividamento, crescimento do PIB positivo ou não negativo, saldos primários positivos e balanças de pagamentos equilibradas ou com superavit  podem esperar fazer um balanço mais positivo desta crise prolongada e conseguirão chegar ao fim com algum desafogo e com melhores resultados que os demais. Estão melhores, mas sempre condicionados por todas as outras economias da zona euro e internacionais, como a economia chinesa, restando ver nesta circunstância de interdependência comum, como irão ser negativamente afetados.

 

Más perspetivas para todos, infelizmente, para os anos mais próximos.

 


publicado por apólogo às 17:07

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